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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.